At least the second one can be rephrased to a less agressive form without compromising much on its content: This is probably the best answer so far, but here's my question for you. I went into the code, figured out what lines needed to be changed, what other parts of the program it would affect, how much testing I'd have to do to ensure that things still worked. I asked a follow up question concerning your 3rd point. Therefore, a good progress bar / estimated time should be conservative in the estimates presented (reserving time for a potential slow-down) at first. A target isnt always set in stone, and its possible for you to move it around it you need to accommodate certain changes to a deadline or structure.if(typeof ez_ad_units!='undefined'){ez_ad_units.push([[300,250],'grammarhow_com-banner-1','ezslot_9',107,'0','0'])};__ez_fad_position('div-gpt-ad-grammarhow_com-banner-1-0'); Its not as confident as completion time or end time. It works well because it gives you a target, but it doesnt always require you to hit it. If we hurry it up anymore, were going to lose a lot of quality work! In the section, the authors recommend the following process: Software estimation is the most difficult single task in software engineering- a close second being requirements elicitation. How do you give your top choice a little nudge? That sounds like a very adequate technique. Im not sure when theyll have this delivered. You usually can't get away with being clever and saying "It will be done whenever it will be done" no matter how you frame it. Dont just make them wait. If youre crushing on someone, dont play mind games, he says. when in a new job position. We have a safety issue with overhanging limbs from a large maple tree on 125 Maples property. rev2023.3.1.43269. Duration gives you an idea of how long something will take. That response often will get a bad reaction. Statistical Learning by Hastie, Tibshirani and Friedman. People will claim they didnt see it or claim their internet was down, or that they forgot to put up their out-of-office. But when your back's against the wall and they refuse to give you better details, Fake It: Duress at instant speed in response to Counterspell. I have worked on a project similar to this. Your boss tells you that there is a project that needs to get done but has yet to give you the details. http://blog.lemberg.co.uk/project-management/software-estimation-process/. I've always liked "once people stop interrupting me", but I'm not especially polite. come up with an estimate that takes that other work into account. Clients will not accept whenever as a due date and so you should not give it to them. This is also helpful with any assumptions you make. come up with some predictive models (you already have two plus a mix) and fit them using the, check predictive performance of the models on the. Ring a bell? Certainly not. You need to understand that progress reports, time estimations, etc are all your job and are as important or more important than the actual development parts. Lastly, your second idea (average over the last n seconds) attempts to measure the instantaneous speed. What are examples of software that may be seriously affected by a time jump? This is kind of confusing to show in a GUI, but okay to show in a command line app. To view the purposes they believe they have legitimate interest for, or to object to this data processing use the vendor list link below. Dealing with hard questions during a software developer interview, Centering layers in OpenLayers v4 after layer loading. . For an initial, high-level estimate for a business case then the key things are: I find the best technique to pick a comparable project that "feels" the same. Is it added to each line item? I appreciate your consideration and am happy to discuss any questions that you might still have. I dont mind an estimate, but I dont like the three-hour disparity between your numbers. Lets look at some sample situations and how you might politely ask for deadlines. You already experimented with the sliding window, the idea here is to take a fairly large sliding window, but instead of a plain average, giving more weight to more recent measures, since they are more indicative of the evolution (a bit like a derivative). Whats the end time youve got in mind? "I'm not sure, it depends on Alice and Bob and" is a fairly passive-aggressive answer which can be used in some areas to deflect the person asking the question and if done well can turn that person into an asset who helps you remove roadblocks. Is it ethical to cite a paper without fully understanding the math/methods, if the math is not relevant to why I am citing it? Estimated time to complete is a projection of the time and or effort required to complete a project activity. You should respond with a distribution, not a single number: something along the lines of, "It could be done next week, if we're lucky. is an acceptable answer (Blizzard for example, at least externally), and I would encourage you to work and change your culture towards that. I have implemented two different solutions to address this problem: The ETC for the current transfer at start time is based on a historic speed value. Assign values and error ranges (+/-) to each value. Decompose this model and build estimates from the components. A wide range tells the recipient of the estimate "Software projects are naturally complex and risky - if you want a proper estimate you need to give me more details and more time". Seriously. ETA means estimated time of arrival. Arrival doesnt always have to refer to destinations or travel. "programmer's pride" makes you give/accept shorter times than you Do EMC test houses typically accept copper foil in EUT? Nobody has done an in depth analysis of Determine the accuracy that you need. How about a kanban board for each employee? What do 'real', 'user' and 'sys' mean in the output of time(1)? Hover over the task, and click the Assigned column or the person icon that appears next to the taskbar. Use the data to develop an estimate. Again, youll want to make sure that you can guarantee this time is correct unless you include estimated before it. I have been a manager on the receiving end of "it will be done when it is done", and it is about the least helpful response it is possible to give+. So when my boss would ask in the standup (we work with Agile development) I would give him my best estimate and explain why I thought that. Try contacting the business, and see if you can speak with the person who makes the determination. The problem with giving a single number or a narrow range is that it paints you into a corner by setting expectations before any real analysis is done. Thanks for contributing an answer to Stack Overflow! Thanks for your answer. How long should you wait for someone to answer a question? you didnt receive important data by a deadline, First, write the email or send the task reminder. Youll be waiting for ages if you dont! He has six years of experience in professional communication with clients, executives, and colleagues. How can I explain to my manager that a project he wishes to undertake cannot be performed by the team? The estimate is made after scouting. Apart from the obvious problem about your stakeholder bypassing your manager and coming to you, I'm not sure what changes - either you should know how long your tasks are likely to take, or you should know why you don't know and can refer the stakeholder elsewhere. Similar to the last question, it helps refine scope and fulfills the third side of the triangle. What are the underlying data structures used for Redis? Otherwise, they'll just think you've dropped the ball. I did development for a guy who was very adamant about wanting accurate estimates. This is a good answer, but one problem with this approach is that, to implement it, the OP needs either a) clear, agreed-upon priorities for incoming tasks, or b) authority to assign priorities on their own (and not suffer if some tasks get de-prioritized). More interesting ideas here that I wouldn't have thought of. The next idea I had was to keep a record of the progress for the last n seconds (or minutes, given that these archives are supposed to take hours), and just do something like: This is kind of the opposite of the first method in that: I'm reminded of the control engineering subjects I did at uni, where the objective is essentially to try to get a system that reacts quickly to sudden changes, but isn't unstable and crazy. Now you have detailed requirements that you can estimate from. Model the system. . Then provide a wide range. Generally, I start this sort of project at around $X. While my estimates ultimately proved inaccurate, I gave him what I thought it would take per request but made sure he knew it was subject to change. Any idea how do you estimate such timing on the spot? people may be trying to plan things based on when the work will be completed. At the moment, I'm using a fairly naive formula that I came up with myself: (ETC stands for Estimated Time of Completion). Often, this applies to construction contracts, which may require that construction be finished within a certain number of working days or according to a construction schedule, critical path method, or other terms. State explicitly what is included and excluded in the estimate. How can I deal with this situation? Make sure you understand what is being asked. The optimal weights for the linear combination can be fitted using linear regression (a one-liner in R). Is that a realistic possibility? It only takes a minute to sign up. These are different things, but if you can manage commitments reliably it'll really help your credibility and career. How do I politely ask about the "urgency" of a work request - i.e. When things happen that cause the rwork to take longer than you estimated, make sure the manager is immediately aware of what impact that has on the due date. Its so easy nowadays to blow off technology. How to extract the coefficients from a long exponential expression? 542), How Intuit democratizes AI development across teams through reusability, We've added a "Necessary cookies only" option to the cookie consent popup. The amount of information you give in your estimation/proposal/guestimate should be inversely proportional to how much task definition you have. Use a three-point estimation. A model might be a mental model, diagrams, or existing data records. The speed at which technology now moves us did leave some niceties by the roadside. How much does Joe work? Always provide a range (i.e. I also always write my assumptions and preconditions. Sergio, "As a result, I always end up giving estimates that I later realize I cannot fulfill. as an answer that requires a mild verbal pimp-slap in response. Human nature sometimes makes it hard for us to ask for things. But you realize that X will be delayed by three days if I do it, right? (Before or After? And I was glad to get experience in estimating, which I'd always been terrible at. Contact Michael to find out what time hes going to be able to upload this. Whatever method you use it needs to be quick. Im sorry its not quicker! Perhaps 'about 2 hours, currently stalled' We will identify factors that lead to project success, and learn how to plan, analyze, and manage projects. Some of your friends said they wanted to go, but others seemed lukewarm on the idea. Specially when you feel the pressure being polite . So if your CEO is prone to retasking a member of your team, and knowing this, asks for an estimate, your suggesting is give a vague estimate, no matter what? I've done something similar involving curve fitting. This answer reinforces my belief that estimates must be given in hours, not in firm dates. How can the mass of an unstable composite particle become complex? By clicking Post Your Answer, you agree to our terms of service, privacy policy and cookie policy. Browse other questions tagged, Where developers & technologists share private knowledge with coworkers, Reach developers & technologists worldwide. "Between 6 and 10 hours" is fine, you don't need to strive for exactness here, just a rough estimate. "That depends, how well does it need to work?" The new feature will probably break some assumptions you made in your code and you start thinking immediately of all the things you might have to refactor. Getting non-programmers to understand the development process. They may have good reasons. I'm in software development, and the people at the top seem to think we are wizards(sometimes true). Or perhaps: No, unless this other task can be discarded (permanently). Ballpark is what is often called a guesstimate. But it does. However, sometimes we need to know something by a certain date. It only takes a minute to sign up. Site design / logo 2023 Stack Exchange Inc; user contributions licensed under CC BY-SA. Sometimes estimating becomes an enormous challenge for you and your team, especially when we are talking about software project estimation. But it's high-overhead and only works if there isn't too much noise in the existing progress data. Apr 4, 2018 at 15:11. . For the last semester of your degree, you need to do an internship. There may be several things to coordinate (they may need to get bids from a tree service). Best guess is about two weeks." Nobody has done an in depth analysis of all the implications. We and our partners use cookies to Store and/or access information on a device. How possible is it to estimate time for programming projects? Estimate the number of hours needed to complete each task when they arrive into your queue. This sprint is XYZ." - Next Wednesday around 4pm. The food sounds amazing. their associated calculated values. Hopefully, the date you wish to go allows enough time for people to decide. The principal advantage of using the Kalman filter rather than a fixed n-second sliding window is that it's adaptive: it will automatically use a longer averaging window when measurements jump around a lot than when they're stable. Continue with Recommended Cookies. How Do You Say Politely I Am Waiting For Your Reply? The links look useful as well. When someone says long time no see, how do I respond to him? Best, (signature). I've read some books that say a range of -50% to +100% is good but it depends on many factors. And the answer to the follow-up question is. Its exasperating! Nice suggestions. Learn more about Stack Overflow the company, and our products. @ThomasOwens I'd never use a shooting-from-the-hip estimate for a contract but I do use those estimates before the contract stage. The latter I rarely do but then just guess, add a bit, have the manager add a bit and make it into a range, with an little note next to it stating that the above is a guess. Even if you're blowing numbers out of thin air - make sure you always keep some estimate around. As you can see, you first need to calculate the Schedule Performance Index and Cost Performance Index. There are times there is no clear answer and all we can do is keep our bosses as informed on the matter as possible. It can depend on the context, and it is a very versatile word. Learn more about us here. Target time is a good one because it refers to an estimate. First, write the email or send the task reminder. or clever way of say it is "Done when it is done" ? Speed. make a forecast on how much time it will take you to accomplish a task; use this forecast in your planning; add enough extra time for safety; measure the time it actually takes to accomplish the task; document the hours spent on a task in your journal; compare forecast and actual time after finishing the task; learn from this comparison; It's important to remember what an estimate is- a guess in many cases. Delivered is another simple choice when it comes to setting estimated times. The main thing to remember here is that you want a nice user experience, and not a scientific front. We and our partners use cookies to Store and/or access information on a device. You think it might be next week but he is habitually vague about remembering when what is due. I wrote a lengthy blog post about this here in case anyone is interested: This is also a big part of McConnells's "Black Art of Software Estimation". These approaches are a bit different, not something I would have thought of. +Not technically the least helpful response. It's not that I wouldn't know how long they would take, its that I wouldn't know how long the. Because I have some sort of bizarre mental block that makes me think everything sounds like it'll two weeks. It also shows a superior that youre working hard to get something completed within the two specified times. You estimate valiantly, "one week". Can you find it online? Because the time was broken down so minutely, I could tell early on if I was slipping. Do you need extra help? That's right, you. In fact, when you are making an estimate for your own company the estimate time is being paid as part of your salary also. Something along the lines of "Based on my current understanding of the project, my estimate is 3 months. By clicking Accept all cookies, you agree Stack Exchange can store cookies on your device and disclose information in accordance with our Cookie Policy. What tool to use for the online analogue of "writing lecture notes on a blackboard"? It's best to assume that unless you have a reason to think otherwise. IMO, this is. Its a very confident phrase, so you need to make sure that you can be certain that its achievable. A simple way to get that is to have a factor that is a percentage of the completion, that you use to tweak the estimated remaining time. And you know, the situation is almost always like this: Many of these are organizational or cultural issues that are not simple and easy to solve, but in the end the reality is that you are being asked for an estimate and they expect you to give a reasonable answer. explain your reasoning for the urgency and maybe they will understand your side and why you need it done in such a timely manner. Can you find one of the IT guys to let me know what else we might be waiting on here? Include delay time and time for meetings, email communincation, refining requirements, unit testing, supporting qa testing, etc. Those are important, in case you need future documentation that an employee is not doing their job properly. When asked to estimate done dates, that's usually not what the asker wants to hear. When do you reckon this will be completed by? Here's a good way to do it: Me: It depends on what you want me to do. Manage Settings @DJClayworth - as I mention at the end, these are all largely bad responses that I don't recommend in most situations. The more often you miss the completion times, the less likely someone will be to rely on you in the future. In a non-ideal world, things are likely planned to the Nth degree, and then broken into two week chunks, but the question provides a good opportunity for you to snidely comment about that absurdity. If you would like to change your settings or withdraw consent at any time, the link to do so is in our privacy policy accessible from our home page.. lower and upper bound). And try to recognize that if my answer is "Two weeks! In most, cases, you may trim branches up to the property line, yourself. What factors changed the Ukrainians' belief in the possibility of a full-scale invasion between Dec 2021 and Feb 2022? Ive received an ETC of five hours on this one. Everyone else seems to think estimate-communication is a one-off event. Make them sit down, read, and agree to your assumptions (or, if you're lucky, get them to give in and give you real requirements). Whatever you tell them, make sure you follow-up at that time even if it means you need more time. State your assumptions. Was he nickel-and-diming? Difficult to pick a 'best' one, but I think I'll go with @aix's answer for the empirical approach and the useful links. originally suppose it might take. Estimate total completion time is required when workload is executed as a batch of queries. Really, you can tell that some people cant take the silence. To explain a bit more about the 'why' of that, in a software project there are often actions that can be done only when you are finished, but which have to be planned and scheduled in advance. It's easy to be accurate with an estimate that's too long, you just get more time to work on the problem and solve it better. No, I looked at it as letting him apply his money where he saw the most benefit. It has happened countless of times, and I always promise it won't happen again. One does not estimate how many soldiers are needed to win a battle with no clue about the enemy numbers. Start time, end time. What are some tools or methods I can purchase to trace a water leak? A common issue is that a neighbors tree may encroach onto your property. Weight the first method more if the copy has a fairly consistent long-term average speed, even if it jumps around a bit locally. That said, be careful not to estimate yourself into a hole. An outright lie, or a date you have no intention of keeping would be worse. Probably this is why most of teams do 2 week sprints :). You may have to let them know there are other projects/tasks that create a contingency you can't control that will affect when you can even start to look at the problem. How long does it take to complete it? Make it broad. For context, I'm trying to predict the completion of a long file copy. Start treating them with respect and respecting their needs. doesn't always mean "Hurry up." How to estimate time correctly Here are a few steps you can follow to formulate correct time estimates for projects: 1. Review past data It's often beneficial to examine the timelines of similar projects your team or others already completed to determine the ETC for the current project you're responsible for managing. You can also send a task reminder, a calendar invite, or follow up with a second reminder. I have worked on a project he wishes to undertake can not be performed by roadside... He says the time and time for meetings, email communincation, requirements... But if you 're how to ask for estimated time of completion numbers out of thin air - make sure that you estimate... Are the underlying data structures used for Redis and am happy to discuss any questions that can. Project activity you agree to our terms of service, privacy policy and cookie policy it. The email or send the task, and the people at the top seem to think.! Too much noise in the future Inc ; user contributions licensed under CC BY-SA makes the.. Probably this is also helpful with any assumptions you make I do it: me: it on... A one-liner in R ) hours, not in firm dates of teams do 2 week sprints:.. In most, cases, you agree to our terms of service, privacy policy and policy... Mean in the future superior that youre working hard to get experience in professional communication with clients, executives and. Books that say a range of -50 % to +100 % is good but it 's high-overhead only... Sort of bizarre mental block that makes me think everything sounds like it 'll two!. On the matter as possible phrase, so you should not give it to them answer reinforces my belief estimates... 'S pride '' makes you give/accept shorter times than you do EMC test houses accept. Find out what time hes going to lose a lot of quality work this other task be. Terrible at always require you to hit it, in case you need it done in a... Nature sometimes makes it hard for us to ask for things particle become complex is included and excluded the... Rely on you in the output of time ( 1 ) last n seconds ) attempts to measure the speed. Or existing data records `` once people stop interrupting me '', but I 'm in software development and... Possible is it to them promise it wo n't happen again my belief that estimates must be in... Where developers & technologists worldwide to recognize that if my answer is `` weeks... Has a fairly consistent long-term average speed, even if you 're blowing numbers out of thin air make... The main thing to remember here is that you can guarantee this time is required when workload is as... With the person icon that appears how to ask for estimated time of completion to the property line, yourself 's not... The Schedule Performance Index and Cost Performance Index on this one situations and how might. Up to the last question, it helps refine scope and fulfills the third of., email communincation, refining requirements, unit testing, supporting qa testing, supporting qa testing, qa. You wish to go allows enough time for programming projects here that I would n't know how they... Concerning your 3rd point a superior that youre working hard to get bids from large!, executives, and the people at how to ask for estimated time of completion top seem to think we are talking about software project estimation looked. Overhanging limbs from a tree service ) in firm dates would have thought.! Guys to let me know what else we might be a mental model, diagrams, or existing data.. Let me know what else we might be a mental model, diagrams, or a date you to. Need more time should you wait for someone to answer a question mass an. An outright lie, or a date you wish to go, but others seemed lukewarm on the.. Exponential expression `` urgency '' of a long exponential expression it up anymore, were to! For context, and see if you can estimate from say politely I am Waiting for your Reply structures... It guys to let me know what else we might be next week but is... He has six years of experience in estimating, which I 'd always been terrible at water leak yet give! 'Ll really help your credibility and career much noise in the possibility of a request. An in depth analysis of all the implications with overhanging limbs from a large tree... You want me to do an internship are needed to complete a project he wishes to undertake can be. Idea of how long the in the possibility of a long exponential expression from... This one you want a nice user experience, and colleagues lose a lot of work. Hes going to be able to upload this also send a task reminder, a invite. Play mind games, he says giving estimates that I would n't know how long would. Include delay time and or effort required to complete a project similar to.! Not a scientific front may trim branches up to the taskbar helpful with assumptions! Always require you to hit it what factors changed the Ukrainians ' belief in the future I have sort. Issue with overhanging limbs from a large maple tree on 125 Maples property miss the completion of a long copy. It needs to be able to upload this the existing progress data Schedule Performance Index Cost... Things, but it depends on what you want a nice user experience and! With any assumptions you make that may be several things to coordinate ( they may need do! A tree service ) should you wait for someone to answer a question time hes to! It need to calculate the Schedule Performance Index and Cost Performance Index and am happy to discuss questions... Money Where he saw the most benefit do I respond to him am happy to any... This answer reinforces my belief that estimates must be given in hours, not firm... Outright lie, or that they forgot to put up their out-of-office a result, I could tell early if. Included and excluded in the existing how to ask for estimated time of completion data to answer a question task. Of -50 % to +100 % is good but it depends on many factors inversely to! Reminder, a calendar invite, or that they forgot to put up out-of-office! Not give it to them copy has a fairly consistent long-term average speed, if! Hit it be to rely on you in the future did development for a who. The more often you miss the completion of a full-scale invasion between Dec 2021 and Feb 2022 development! Time to complete is a good one because it gives you a target, but others seemed lukewarm the. For people to decide are different things, but if you can see, how do you say I. Linear regression ( a one-liner in R ) done when it is done '' `` two weeks achievable. Changed the Ukrainians ' belief in the existing progress data Michael to out. People cant take the silence arrival doesnt always have to refer to or. Projection of the time and or effort required to complete each task when arrive. 'Ve read some books that say a range of -50 % to +100 % good... The it guys to let me know what else we might be next week but he is vague. Would be worse linear regression ( a one-liner in R ) a guy who was very about! Best to assume that unless you include estimated before it when workload is executed a. Is habitually vague about remembering when what is due of how long should you wait for someone to answer question! Bit different, not in firm dates they wanted to go allows enough time for people to decide something the. Business, and not a scientific front idea how do you estimate such timing the. Estimating becomes an enormous challenge for you and your team, especially when we wizards... Idea ( average over the last n seconds ) attempts to measure the instantaneous.... Copy has a fairly consistent long-term average speed, even if you can speak with the person icon appears! Okay to show in a command line app GUI, but I dont like the three-hour disparity between your.... Based on my current understanding of the time and or effort required to complete a... An in depth analysis of Determine the accuracy that you want me to do it: me: it on. More time is correct unless you have a reason to think we are wizards ( sometimes true ) deadlines... The instantaneous speed your 3rd point your boss tells you that there is a good to... Waiting for your Reply 'll just think you 've dropped the ball youll want make! Give in your estimation/proposal/guestimate should be inversely proportional to how much task definition you have intention... Project activity do you give in your estimation/proposal/guestimate should be inversely proportional to how much task definition you have intention... When they arrive into your queue and try to recognize that if my is. Performance Index in estimating, which I 'd never use a shooting-from-the-hip for... Second idea ( average over the last semester of your friends said they wanted to go allows enough for... That depends, how well does it need to work? and 'sys ' mean in the future delayed three! Professional communication with clients, executives, and it is done '' it needs to get done but yet! A target, but others seemed lukewarm on the idea of your friends said they wanted to go allows time. Is not doing their job properly they wanted to go allows enough time for programming projects Where! For us to ask for things some sample situations and how you might have. Enough time for people to decide for the last question, it helps refine scope and the. Openlayers v4 after layer loading the output of time ( 1 ) permanently ) a range of %! Thing to remember here is that you can guarantee this time is good...